2012 Playoff Predictions: Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots Another Tebow Miracle?
Written by Matthew Regaw
Wed, 11 Jan 2012
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
The Tim Tebow legend begins to grow after the Broncos upset the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card game. His legacy will only grow bigger if he can pull off a more daunting task in beating Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional round.
The NFL playoff odds for this game opened with the Patriots as two touchdown favorites over the Broncos. While this number seems high the public has no problem backing it as the Patriots have a small, 53 percent consensus from the betting public. This number has moved in both directions and it can be found at 13.5 or 15 depending on what side that the bettor is looking for. Most of the reason for such a big number is due to the results of the last meeting.
In early December the Patriots invaded Denver and trounced the Broncos by the final score of 41-23. That loss sent the Broncos into a three-game losing streak and it seemed like they were going to exit the playoffs quickly.
The Broncos did not go quickly and in fact upset the Steelers as a nine point home dog. Now they have to hit the road to try and win a playoff game in one of the hardest places to win in the NFL. But there are some good things in favor of the Broncos heading into this game.
The Patriots defense is awful and one of the worst in the league. In the first meeting the Broncos torched the Patriots defense on the ground and averaged eight yards per carry. If the Broncos can get the lead they can control the time of possession and keep the ball away from Brady and that killer offense.
The Broncos have also evolved. The Steelers got beat because they overloaded the box and Tebow took advantage of one-on-one coverage by the suspect secondary. Tebow elongated plays by staying alive in the pocket and that allowed for openings by the wide outs. If he can do that again, this game could be close, and yes, the Broncos have a chance of winning.
Brady has a losing record against the Broncos and the win this year was only his second win in eight attempts. The Patriots also have a problem of late winning in January. Because of this they can get upset and if you believe in trends they are a bad bet this week. The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five playoff games as a favorite and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games in January.
The Patriots also have stumbled as double-digit favorites of late. The Patriots are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
The Broncos come in to this game with confidence and the type of athleticism that can keep the game close. The Patriots defense is very beatable and that will allow Tebow to keep this game close by controlling the time of possession. Get this line while it's over two touchdowns.
2012 Playoff Predictions: Denver Broncos +15