Betting the Backups
Written by Greg Waters
Fri, 13 Nov 2009
Category sportsbook
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A few weeks ago, Alex Smith was a clipboard holder, but last night he was the winning QB on the nationally televised NFL Thursday nighter. Smith helped guide his 49ers to a huge win over the visiting Bears (and more importantly for the sports betting community, San Fran covered the 3 points in their 10-6 victory), kicking off a week in which a few former back-up QBs will be in the spotlight for their teams.
Looking at this week’s NFL lines and matchups, bettors will be asked to evaluate whether or not these new starters provide betting value, slotting into the “play-on” category, or they’re in the “play-against” category, or the “stay-away” category.
Start with Josh Freeman in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers had little to lose when handing the offensive keys over to Freeman for a Week 9 matchup vs. the Green Bay Packers. They were coming off their bye week, returning from that drubbing they took by the Pats in London and of course, they were still searching for that elusive first win of the season.
The public absolutely loved Green Bay in this one, making them one of the biggest “bet-on” teams of the week. The game kicked off with Tampa Bay as a 10.5-point underdog. Not only did Freeman guide his team to a pointspread cover as a double-digit underdog, but they pulled off the upset with a 38-28 win.
The Bucs stayed in Florida this week, making the short trip to Miami for a clash with the Dolphins. They are 10.5-point road underdogs in this one. Usually reserved as a preseason dress rehearsal, this regular season game means a lot to both of these franchises for different reasons. Miami is in the hunt for a Wild Card in the AFC, while Tampa has a chance to gather momentum for a grueling three-game divisional set that begins next week against New Orleans.
Any chance of looking past the Bucs was diminished for Miami after Tampa Bay’s upset last week vs. the Packers, but even with a focused Dolphin squad, the double-digit pointspread will be attractive for underdog bettors. After all, Miami has only won two games by more than 10 points out of the past 21 they’ve played – and both were against the Buffalo Bills!
And didn’t underdogs go 10-3 against the spread in Week 9?
Miami is also starting a QB that began the season on the bench and while Chad Henne has performed well in his four starts, his record is just 1-3 straight-up and let’s be honest, were it not for the Dolphins fourth ranked run-game, many of Henne’s numbers would surely be tarnished.
The betting action at the online sportsbooks has been tilted to the Dolphins so far, with 63% of the volume on the home team.
- Vince Young was a starter in this league, but lost his position after inconsistent play and erratic behavior off the field. He has clawed at the starter’s door several times but managed to make a mess upon each entrance. However, Young and the Titans are 2-0 SU/ATS in this round, which looks pretty good considering Tennessee was a miserable 0-6 SU before his Week 8 entrance.
This week the Titans host the dismal Buffalo Bills as a 6.5-point favorite. Speaking of back-ups, Buffalo has had enough of theirs, Ryan Fitzpatrick, so look for Trent Edwards to be settled in behind center on Sunday. When handicapping this game, it won’t hurt to look at the San Fran situation and ask yourself what elements Tennessee has on its side.
Home field? Yup. A top-rated running back that is more than capable of carrying the load on offense? Without a doubt. And finally, do the Titans like to call the kind of game plan that takes pressure off its young QB to eliminate mistakes, relying on the defense to help keep the game in check? That’s a yes as well.
The tricky part is determining whether they can cover that spread and win by a touchdown, as San Fran was only asked to cover by a field goal. But given the sad state of Tennessee’s season thus far, a win by double-digits could be just what Jeff Fisher orders.
And of course we have the situation in Cleveland. Brady Quinn is back as the starter for their Monday nighter vs. the Ravens. We’ll write more about that in our Monday night preview.
Should be an interesting week for these teams and their QBs.
Good luck.
link: http://www.wheretobet.com/redirect/sportsbetting.com-205/all