College Football Picks Week 11: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Toledo Rockets
Written by Matthew Regaw
Tue, 8 Nov 2011
Category sportsbook
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The college football schedule for week 11 starts early, with a doubleheader on Tuesday night. The week kicks off with a game in the MAC as the Western Michigan Broncos travel to take on the Toledo Rockets.
The college football point spread for this game opened with the Rockets as 12.5 point favorites. This line has dropped since its opening and now is hovering around 11 points. This drop was started due to smart money grabbing value with the underdog early, but the public is on the Rockets at 77% with the early returns.
This game is critical to the Mid-American Conference West division standings. The Rockets are tied at the top of the heap with several other teams nipping at their heels. After losing a week ago against Northern Illinois, the Rockets need to rebound with a big win. However since the Broncos are one of the teams trailing Toledo in the standings, this also becomes a must win for the road team.
The Broncos are off a bye and enter this game after a home win. Quarterback Alex Carder looked good under center. He makes decent decisions under pressure and spreads the ball out among his weapons to include wide receiver Robert Arnheim, a senior leader on this squad. The Broncos posted 45 points on their way to a win and want to carry that momentum into this game.
The Rockets have to improve from the loss a week ago as they collapsed on defense and special teams. Allowing two kickoff returns is inconceivable and if they don’t correct that problem this week, they could be upset again. Austin Dantin’s play as a quarterback for the Rockets was impressive and he has chemistry with wide receiver Eric Page that is undeniable.
The Broncos are 4-11-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 16 games as a road underdog, 10-21-3 ATS when playing a team with a winning record, and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four Tuesday games. After a bad defensive effort the Rockets usually rebound as they are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Starting off the college football week by backing a double digit favorite is not always advisable, but it is in this case as the Rockets roll the Broncos.
College Football Picks Week 11: Toledo Rockets -11