Monday Night Football: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Written by Matthew Regaw
Mon, 12 Sep 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
The Monday Night NFL season kicks off with a double header that starts with a great game between the Patriots and the Dolphins. These two AFC East rivals have a long history and should provide a great game to watch in prime time.
The latest point spread for this game has the Patriots listed as seven point favorites over the Dolphins.
The Miami Dolphins enter this game with double revenge in mind, after being dismantled by the Patriots offense last year in both meetings. Perhaps the most embarrassing of those losses was a Monday night dismantling of the Dolphins in every aspect at home. The Dolphins lost that game by the final score of 41-14. That game will be fresh in their minds when they take the field under the lights against the Pats.
Tom Brady and the Patriots have been one of the best teams in the NFL over the last several years, so it might come as a surprise that the Dolphins have had some success in this series. Miami is 15-7 straight up in its last 22 games when playing at home against New England and in the last ten meetings they are 5-5 against the number.
Now let's investigate the spread. This line opened at 3.5 and now has been pushed all the way up to seven points. Any value a Patriots backer would have had is long gone. As could be expected the Patriots are huge public favorites as 91% of the sports betting money is coming in on the Patriots. Even with that being said, the smart money tracker at Sports Insights shows that money is coming in on both teams.
Now to the X's and O's: The Patriots offense is awesome there is no doubt about that. Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and he is a fully equipped arsenal to put up points. Chad Ochocinco will play his first game in a Patriots uniform and will look to make a splash in prime time.
What is often ignored is how good the Dolphins defense is. They rank in the top ten in rushing and passing defense, and they have some of the best cornerbacks in the league. They are quick off the ball and should be able to apply some pressure on the front line.
The Dolphins offense, especially quarterback Chad Henne is always under fire, but a look at his numbers shows that he is more than capable of putting up points. The addition of Reggie Bush in the backfield will change the look of the Fins offense and make them more explosive.
The Patriots excel on offense, but have some weak spots on defense. Brandon Marshall will be nearly impossible to cover and demands a double team. This will allow the Dolphins to stretch the field and open up the middle.
The football betting trends show that the Patriots are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games in September. The Dolphins are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. This game is going to be closer than the experts think and the public money has blown this line up making it nearly untouchable for Patriot backers.
That won't stop money from coming in and the line from going up. Wait until this game gets closer to kickoff and take the Dolphins plus the points.
Monday Night Football Pick: Dolphins +7