NFL Best Bets Week Five: Winning Football Picks Against the Spread
Written by Matthew Regaw
Fri, 7 Oct 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
The NFL schedule for week five is loaded with great games and top teams facing off against one another. The best bets highlight the top three games to bet on in the NFL. These games do not include my NFL lock of the week or the NFL upset special.
Finding the best bets for the week is never easy, but here are the top three picks with NFL trends, and stats to back up the picks.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Vick and the Eagles Are in Big Trouble in Buffalo
The Philadelphia Eagles are in a free fall and the Eagle fans are starting to panic. The sports betting public is not as the early sports betting money is flying in on the Eagles and Michael Vick this week as they head to Buffalo. The Bills recently lost to the Bengals so the public is not buying into the fact that they could win this game, so the low line looks appetizing. However, the Bills are the play in this game.
The Bills play much better at home, and the Eagles defense is getting torched so far this season. Vick is one hit away from being pulled from this game and leaving the offense in shambles. Ryan Fitzpatrick can move this offense against any team in the league. The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite and they will fall yet again in Buffalo.
Bills (+3)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Tampa Bay won on Monday night, but they looked awful. The San Francisco 49ers on the other hand played a great game in a come-from-behind win over the Eagles. A favorable spot to wager on a football team is when they win outright on the road as an underdog and come home with a small line. The 49ers are in this spot.
They return home overflowing with confidence and face a Bucs team that is inconsistent on the field. The Bucs travel cross country and are in a short week. That is a recipe for disaster for Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and they will lose this game to the surging 49ers.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
The Indianapolis Colts played a decent game on Monday night against Tampa Bay, but they are still having obvious struggles with injuries. The defense is so decimated that when they have a few key pass rushers off the field the secondary is exposed. Enter Kansas City and Matt Cassell. The Chiefs started the season with a new offense and they needed time to adjust. In the game against Minnesota it was obvious the offense of the Chiefs is coming together. The Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and the Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Colts are closer to Andrew Luck then winning this game.
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
Good luck in week five in the NFL.