NFL Betting: Saints vs. 49ers Preview
Written by Greg Waters
Tue, 21 Sep 2010
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
Monday Night Football is usually considered the 'big game of the week during the regular season, but with the run the Saints have been on, primetime matchups are starting to become old hat. In a stretch that goes back to last year's playoffs, tonight marks the fifth consecutive game for New Orleans in front of a national TV audience.
The Week 1 opener vs. Minnesota was not exactly the brand of football Saints bettors have become accustomed to, but a 14-9 win was enough to get the team past the mythical post-Super Bowl jinx that has sent several past champions to the mat.
San Francisco not only lost its first game, they were slapped hard by a divisional opponent (Seattle) who this weekend at Denver proved they were not very special after all. The pressure in this game for a strong performance is clearly on the 49ers.
Sportsbooks have the line as New Orleans -5.
PAST PERFORMANCES
2010 marks the third straight year the Saints have opened the season at home and followed it with a non-divisional road game the very next week. They are 3-0 SU in the home portion and the games that followed the last two years had completely different results (5 point loss – 26 point win). Today's Saints are nothing like the group from '08, however, so it's not worth putting too much weight into the trend.
It is worth noting that the Saints are 6-9 ATS on Monday Night and they have won five straight over the 49ers since being swept in a 2001 home-and-home series against their then-NFC West rival.
San Francisco is looking to avoid its first 0-2 SU start since 2005. They are 4-1 SU in their home opener the past five years and 3-2 against the number.
SPOTLIGHT
No wonder the Saints don't mind a lot of attention!
2009 Divisional Finals – Saints (-7) hosted the Arizona Cardinals, winning 45-14 (Over 57)
2009 Conference Championship – Saints (-3.5) beat Minnesota 31-28 in overtime (Over 54)
Super Bowl XLIV at Dolphins Stadium – Saints (+4) upset Indianapolis Colts 31-17 (Under 56.5)
2010 NFL Season Kickoff – Saints (-5) welcome Brett Favre back with another defeat, 14-9 (Under 49)
PUBLIC EYE
According to online sportsbooks, only three teams this week including the Saints (87-percent) were heavily over weighted with public money to one side. The other big favorites Sunday, Philadelphia (89-percent) and New England (89-percent), both came up short at the betting window.
Combine it with figures from Week 1, where overweight public favs went 1-3 ATS and it doesn't paint a pretty picture for Joe Public. Can the Saints change the market?
PREDICTION
Expectations for the 49ers were high coming into the season and after the blowout at Qwest Field, no one should be sounding the alarms just yet. A 0-3 SU day for NFC West rivals on Sunday helps the cause and with a win today, San Francisco would be right on pace. Now getting that win vs. the most explosive team in football is another story.
QB Smith is going to be under a lot of duress from the front seven and when he does get the ball away the Saints' ball hawking secondary will be looking to make plays. San Francisco's run-game was good for only 49 yards against Seattle and if they fall behind it will be hard to get untracked.
The Niners also converted just 1-for-15 on third downs and while no team is ever 'as bad' as they were the week before, Mike Singletary's squad has a lot of ground to make up.
Pick: Take the Saints
link: http://wheretobet.com/redirect/sportsbetting.com-205/all