NFL Betting: Week 7 Early Value
Written by Greg Waters
Wed, 20 Oct 2010
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
Most NFL insiders seem to agree that the outcome from Sunday with the biggest impact on the standings is the Minnesota Vikings (2-3) win over the Dallas Cowboys (1-4).
Dallas self-destructed with nearly 100 yards in penalties and although the Cowboys technically rank sixth overall for offensive fouls, they are first on a per game basis. Oakland, Detroit, Philadelphia, the New York Jets, and Denver are all high on the list as well, but the Cowboys are the only one of the six teams to have taken a bye week this season.
Dallas will host the New York Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 7 and sportsbooks have set the line as the Cowboys -3 with the Over/Under odds at 44.5. As we've seen all season, buying early in prime-time games has been the best way to get a good price for those looking for a high-scoring affair.
TIGHT SPACES – NFC NORTH
By virtue of two straight-up losses suffered by the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers in Week 6, Minnesota has climbed within two games of first in a division that is shaping up to be a race to the finish.
Green Bay has lost back-to-back games in overtime and that qualifies the Packers for a rare system on the "Over", but like the Giants-Cowboys game, it's probably best to buy now.
The Packers are hosting Brett Favre and the Vikings this Sunday night. Don't expect that line to drop any as the game gets closer. If you like the Over, and we are leaning that way, buy it early.
OPPONENTS WISE UP
Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Chicago were the last three teams this season to suffer straight-up losses and in Week 6 these teams managed to go 2-1 ATS, but the ATS wins were both close to the wire.
Time will tell whether the Chiefs, Bears, and Steelers have what it takes to make the post-season but in the meantime, keep these statistics in mind for the next few weeks:
- Since 2005, teams that went 3-0 straight-up and then lost in Game 4 had a combined record of 9-18-2 ATS (33-percent) from Games 5-7.
It takes game planners, the betting public, and oddsmakers up to three weeks to adjust to what was making those teams so successful in the first place but while they do, the value play is AGAINST these would-be contenders.
The early play for Week 7 is a play AGAINST the Chicago Bears (-3) who are hosting the Washington Redskins.
Good luck
You can check out all the updated NFL odds at Sportsbetting.com by clicking the link below.
link: http://wheretobet.com/redirect/sportsbetting.com-205/all