NFL Key Trends For Week 17 From NFLOne.com
Written by The Director
Sat, 27 Dec 2008
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.
Could there be any more painful way to close the season for the OAKLAND RAIDERS than to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who last defeated the Raiders by 13 points in the 2005 Super Bowl? Can the ATLANTA FALCONS turn their fortune versus the St. Louis Rams, who had beaten them by 12 points last year?
DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE
If the NEW YORK GIANTS had not won the division as well as home field advantage, history may have just repeated itself this weekend; the Giants entering with an amazing 20-6 record ATS on the Road, and 5-0 ATS in Domes over the last three years. While the Minnesota Vikings have gone 2-0 ATS and 2-0 SU in mid-year contests versus Tom Coughlin as Underdog, including a 24 victory margin last year, their sole loss ATS came here as a 6.5 Favorite back in 2004. Favored again this year, the Vikings, who are one of the worst Post-Thanksgiving teams since 1998, and 2-3 ATS versus the NFC East over the last three seasons, will look to take advantage of the bench of the NY Giants.
Another team looking to take advantage of the starters being sidelined are the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 7-3 ATS as Underdogs over the last three years, or will it be the Tennessee Titans, 14-3 ATS versus the division over the last three years? For when the starting team is in, the Tennessee Titans are 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU in their last five in the series; the Titans going 2-0 ATS and SU as 4+ Favorites. Closing the 2007 season by holding the Colts to only 10 points as Young able to outgun Sorgi, the historians will be looking to see whose side fate is on.
FIRST LOOK
Don't be fooled that the Detroit Lions have not won SU in Green Bay in the last ten years as they are actually 2-2 ATS in their last four games in Green Bay; their last victory ATS and SU coming in 2005. What the press has failed to note is that the Lions are 9-1 ATS as an Underdog of 10 or more points, and 6-0 ATS as a Road Dog of 10.5-14 points over the last three seasons. Of course the Green Bay Packers, who are one of the top teams Over the Total Post-Thanksgiving, have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games with the Lions, including an 18 point margin of victory in Week 2.
ADVANTAGE LIONS
It is easy to think that there is no connection between the Kansas City Chiefs and the CINCINNATI BENGALS, 3-2 ATS versus the AFC West over the last three seasons. However, upon further look, this has been one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are 2-1 ATS in the last three games in the series, including one of 2007's top offensive performance by Huard and Johnson. The key here is that the Chiefs, who are 1-4 ATS versus the AFC North, had the benefit of Home field advantage in all those games.
ADVANTAGE CHIEFS
KING TRENDS
With the playoffs on the line, history has shone brightly on the New England Patriots with a trip to Buffalo to close the seasons. 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups with the Bills, including a 10 point victory in Week 10, the Pats arrive knowing that their last loss in Buffalo was in 2003; this is surprising keeping in mind Buffalo's 13-9 record ATS at Home over the last three seasons. Winning by 46 points in Buffalo last year, the Bills are managing less than 7 points per game in their last three here in Buffalo; New England winning by an average of over 30 points per game in their last three in Buffalo.
ADVANTAGE PATRIOTS
While the Fish have turned their fortunes around, the NEW YORK JETS will also hope that history repeats itself. Although there is no denying the turnaround that the Miami Dolphins, 1-3 ATS as a Road Dog of 3 or less points have had, it should be kept in mind that the New York Jets, 2-1 ATS as Home Favorite of 3 or less points, have gone 9-0-1 ATS versus the Dolphins in their last 10 matchups. Their last loss coming in 2003. Riding the confidence of the Week 1 victory, Brett Favre will look to be the difference in a series that has seen two of the last three here in New York decided by 3 or less points.
ADVANTAGE JETS
If there was ever a way to wrap up one of the most memorable regular seasons in recent memory, it is here in San Diego where the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS are 2-1-1 in the last four in the series with the Denver Broncos. What is interesting is that the Chargers, who are 10-1 ATS as Home Favorites of 7.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons, suffered the one loss here to close the 2005 season. The bad news for Broncos fans is that the Broncos, 3-10 ATS in December, and 3-14 ATS in the division over the last three years, are actually most recently 0-2 ATS as 7.5 to 10 point Underdogs here.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS
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