NFL Lock For Week Two 2011: Tennessee Titans over Baltimore Ravens
Written by Matthew Regaw
Fri, 16 Sep 2011
Category sportsbook
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Every week in the NFL I will post my NFL Best Bets, my NFL Lock, and my NFL upset pick of the week. This article will feature on the NFL Lock for week two in the NFL. For those that do not know the "lock of the week" focuses on the "can't-miss" play of the NFL schedule.
Chris Johnson Will Run Wild Vs. Ravens
For this week, we head to Tennessee to cover the game between the Titans and the Ravens. The spread on this game has the Ravens favored by six points over the winless Titans. One of the biggest problems of betting football early in the season is over-reacting.
The Baltimore Ravens destroyed the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one. They clicked on both sides of the ball as they devoured the Steelers on defense and moved the ball effortlessly on offense. The Titans struggled to play with the Jacksonville Jaguars; a team that cut its starting quarterback less than a week before the season starts. So as expected the overwhelming public opinion will be the Ravens will crush the Titans.
This is evident from all public consensus football wagering reports and I would not be surprised if this line gets near seven by kickoff. However, the Titans will not only compete with the Ravens this week, but they have a realistic chance of beating Baltimore. Not a believer? Here are a few reasons why:
The Ravens are off a huge game and it will be nearly impossible to get excited for a road game against Tennessee after beating their rivals so handily. The Titans on the other hand will be playing their first home game and eager to get their first win of the season.
Baltimore's offense plan will be to exploit the run against the Titans. This will keep this game low scoring and close, making the points worth the look. When the Titans have the ball they will increase the workload of Chris Johnson. After getting acclimated to football in his first game back, he will be ready to go.
Now most certainly the Ravens defense will focus on the run, so look for a spread attack run by Matt Hasselbeck. He is a veteran cornerback that won't fold under the blitz and the Titans actually have an edge at wide receiver. Kenny Britt is a big physical threat and is going up against young Jimmy Smith, the rookie Ravens corner.
Hasselbeck can offset the blitz with the running of Johnson and open up the field with short passes. The Titans defense will focus on Ray Rice and try to improve on their performance against the run. It may also be interesting to note that with all of the things that the Ravens did in week one, they managed to get plenty of flags in the game.
That will come back to haunt them in this game.
Finally the sports betting trends favor the Titans in this contest. The Ravens are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0, proving they struggle to cover the number on the road. The Titans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
The Titans keep this close enough to cash with the points, but have a realistic shot of winning outright.
NFL Lock Of the Week: Tennessee Titans +6