NFL Playoff Picks: Ravens-Steelers, Packers-Falcons
Written by Greg Waters
Fri, 14 Jan 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
After a "wild" NFL Wild-Card round, we've got four more marquee matchups this weekend as the NFL playoffs march towards the Conference Championships. Let's look at our playoff picks from the two Saturday games, featuring a Ravens vs. Steelers battle and the Packers vs. Falcons.
Ravens at Steelers:
The line at most sportsbooks in the Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh game is the Steelers -3 and the Total is 37. These two kickoff the weekend at Heinz Field where the teams met in Week 4. The home team was led by Charlie Batch in that one, as Big Ben was still sidelined due to suspension. The result was a 17-14 Baltimore win.
Include the Steelers' 13-10 win at Baltimore in Week 13 and now these two have seen four-straight games decided by exactly three points.
Roethlisberger showed little rust after missing four games and led the Steelers to a fifth postseason appearance in seven seasons and the Ravens will need to get the same kind of pressure they showed in the last meeting.
Baltimore is 4-0 SU/ATS in its past four road games and plus-12 in turnovers their past five games including a plus-3 rating last week at Kansas City. Bringing Roethlisberger down is nearly impossible but forcing him to make throws he doesn't want to make could play right into the hands of Ed Reed and the secondary.
The additions of WRs Boldin and Houshmandzadeh give QB Joe Flacco outlets that didn't exist a year ago. TE Heap was huge against the Chiefs and needs to be at the top of his game once again if the Ravens are to advance.
We like the Over more than the side in this one, but looking at a side play, we feel taking the 3-points with the underdog provides the best value. Pittsburgh is an incredibly tough place for a road team to go win a playoff game, but the Ravens have the pieces for a legitimate shot. We like having the 3-points in hand.
Pick: Take the Ravens
Packers at Ravens:
Green Bay and Atlanta (-2.5, O/U 44) will lock horns in the Saturday Night prime-time slot and as is the case in all four Conference semi-finals, these teams have already gone to war during the regular season.
The Packers fell just shy of an upset in Week 12, thanks partly to a special teams breakdown in the final minute, but Green Bay does have a 12-4 ATS record in its past 16 dome games. That stretch began in Week 10, 2005 with a 33-25 win in this very building, one year before HC McCarthy took over.
Green Bay needs Aaron Rodgers to produce and in his past eight games Rodgers was 6-2 SU with a QB rating of 122.1 (19:2 TD-to-INT ratio). Green Bay's playmakers during that span have generated 23 plays of 25-plus yards and the emergence of rookie RB James Starks last week in Philadelphia completes the package.
Defense wins championships and the Packers have a solid unit that will be tested all day by Matt Ryan's electric offense. RB Turner, WR White and TE Gonzalez were top producers all season but Green Bay has held eight of its past nine opponents to 20 points or less.
Creative schemes, an aggressive pass rush and excellent coverage were all trademarks of Dom Capers' defense and we feel it will be the difference in this football game.
Pick: Take the Packers
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