NFL Thursday Night Football: Ravens at Falcons
Written by Greg Waters
Thu, 11 Nov 2010
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
Bettors wanted the NFL to rid the prime-time lineup of cream puffs and it looks like the schedule makers have listened. This season's Thursday night showcase begins with a pair of first place clubs each looking to become the league's first seven-win team.
BALTIMORE (6-2) AT ATLANTA (6-2)
Sportsbooks have the line sitting at the Falcons -1, with a Total of 43.
Looking at the matchup, in the past five weeks the Ravens went 3-0 at home and lost one game straight-up at New England in overtime. Joe Flacco is consistently throwing for close to 250 passing yards per game and since Week 3 Flacco is the NFL's top rated QB.
Atlanta continues to take full advantage of home field, extending its win streak to 13-straight last week in games where QB Matt Ryan started. The Falcons have relied on a strong run game to control the clock and are one of the league's best in the clutch, converting on 46-percent of their 3rd down situations.
Baltimore's defensive unit has a much bigger reputation than the Falcons and with Ed Reed back in the lineup a lot of people are giving the Ravens the edge by default but Mike Smith has quietly built this Falcons D into one of the best in the NFC. Through nine weeks Atlanta is tied for third in the league with 13 interceptions.
OVER/UNDER
The Thursday Night schedule for 2009 started in Week 10 when Chicago traveled to San Francisco for Mike Singletary's first meeting against his old team. In classic Bears fashion, this defensive battle ended in a 10-6 win for the 49ers.
It was actually more a 'lack of offense' that kept that game low but either way, it started a trend that saw seven-straight Thursday games stay under the posted total.
That list includes five prime-time games along with both of the Thanksgiving-day matinees and although this 'trend' can easily be written off as such, it's worth considering that when teams have had less time to work on gameplans it is more likely to be the offense that struggles.
- Of all nine Thursday games in 2009, including the season opener between Tennessee and Pittsburgh, only one game finished "Over" the bookmaker's number
Online sportsbooks opened this total at 43.5 and it was quickly bought down to 43. It's now floating up at 44. Just two Thursday games in 2009 had more than 43 total points scored.
INJURY REPORT
Baltimore is one of the healthiest teams in the league right now and with WR Stallworth the offense gets even more potent. For Atlanta, keep your eyes and ears posted for Roddy White (knee) sightings. The Falcons WR sat out practice Tuesday but said he still expects to play.
PREDICTION
Baltimore's offense is scoring 28.5 points per game during its hot streak and while the Falcons are an elite team we feel they will run into problems moving the ball on the ground. Take away that aspect and Atlanta is still a "good" team, but not good enough to hang with these Ravens for 60 minutes.
Pick: Take the Ravens
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