NFL Upset Pick Week Three 2011: New York Jets Suffer First Loss Against the Oakland Raiders
Written by Matthew Regaw
Wed, 21 Sep 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
NFL upsets are common in place each week, especially early in the season when teams are still searching for their identity. Spotting those upsets can be very difficult. My upset pick for week two, came up just short as the Niners blew a late lead in the fourth quarter to the Dallas Cowboys. 49ers football betting backers still got the push or cashed as the Cowboys won by three.
This week the upset is in another west coast game as the New York Jets travel west to take on the Oakland Raiders. The Jets are off an easy victory against the Jaguars and may have some trouble getting motivated for this game with the Baltimore Ravens looming on deck.
On the stat sheet it may seem like the Jets dominate the Raiders in all categories, but that is not the case. When it comes to yards per pass, The Raiders come in ahead of the Jets at 7.7, as compared to 7.3. On defense the Raiders edge the Jets again with yards per pass at 6.8 to 5.8. In fact the only edge that the Jets have is when it comes to Yards per rush on defense where they come in with a 3.3, opposed to the 6.7 of the Silver and Black.
Raiders Can Upset The Jets
The Jets have had trouble rushing the ball this year and they rank 28th in the league in rush offense, so they will not be able to exploit that weakness. The Raiders are 4th in the league in rushing and will be able to give the Jets a tough time up front.
The sports betting point spread in this game opened with the Jets as four point favorites and the line has been moved down to as low as three in certain offshore sportsbooks. This is due to the flood of smart money that came in on Oakland when the line first opened. The public is still overwhelmingly on the Jets at about a 77% clip.
The Raiders also have some sports betting trends that favor them in this game. The Raiders are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss, and the home team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
The Raiders offense has been clicking as they average 160 yards on the ground and quarterback Jason Campbell is off one of the best games of his career. The Jets defense allowed over 400 yards to the Cowboys in week one and will be challenged again.
This game will come down to the wire and the Raiders will pull off the upset at home over Rex Ryan and the New York Jets.
NFL Upset Pick: Oakland Raiders +3.5