NFL Upset Week 9: Miami Dolphins Get First Win Over the Kansas City Chiefs
Written by Matthew Regaw
Sun, 6 Nov 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
The Miami Dolphins have yet to get a win in the NFL. The losses and the frustration keep piling up for this team and they are considered front runners in the race for Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.
Will the Dolphins Win This week?
Their opposition today, the Kansas City Chiefs are on a roll and have won back-to-back divisional games heading into this game. The most recent win was against the San Diego Chargers on Monday night football. Now on a short week and playing against the hapless Dolphins, the Chiefs are primed for a letdown.
The Chiefs used to be very dominating at home, but the recent NFL trends indicate otherwise. The Chiefs are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. The Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game which also shows they are vulnerable off of a short week.
NFL Team Trend of The Game: Using the extensive database at NFL Team Trends I investigated this trend to find more support for the Dolphins. The database revealed the Dolphins since 2006 have been a great bet as road underdogs as they cover at a 60% clip (21-12-2 in the last 35 games). However the trend gets even better when you perform more research. The Dolphins as road dogs when the total is greater than 39 are 11-6 against the spread and that cashes at 64%!
The Dolphins are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record, and have showed up to play in several road games this year and have been profitable for backers, although they have yet to win. The Dolphins played very well against the Giants and they are not quitting on their season. Head coach Tony Sparano may not have a job next year, but the Dolphins are still playing hard for him.
Matt Moore is getting comfortable under center and is starting to find chemistry with Brandon Marshall at wide out. The Chiefs bread and butter is running the ball, but surprisingly, the Dolphins defense can stop the run. After several bad games, Reggie Bush is starting to play top caliber football and will be a main cog on the offense in this game.
The Chiefs will struggle in this game as they are prone for a letdown. The Dolphins have tremendous value plus the points and deserve a look on the money line.
The upset of the week for week nine in the NFL is the Miami Dolphins. Take the points as insurance, but don’t be surprised when the Dolphins get their first win over the season over the shell shocked Chiefs.
NFL Upset Week 9: Miami Dolphins +5