NFL Week 11 Lock of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Written by Matthew Regaw
Sun, 20 Nov 2011
Category sportsbook
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The AFC North will feature one of the best games of the day as the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens face off on the football field. This game is crucial as both of these teams are deadlocked at 6-3 in the standings, one game behind the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The NFL week 11 odds opened up with the Baltimore Ravens listed as nine point favorites. That line has subsequently dropped to as low as 6.5 at some of the top rated online sportsbooks. This has something to do with the fact that 57% of the early betting money is coming in on the Bengals. This is a reaction to the results from week ten, when the Bengals played toe-to-toe with the Steelers and the Ravens dropped an embarrassing game to the Seattle Seahawks.
This has happened to the Ravens before this year when they dropped winnable games against the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Ravens play up to the level of their competition and that won’t be a problem against the Bengals this week. What might be a problem are injuries.
Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis could sit out of this game. He has not practiced all week due to a toe injury. This would be a big hole on the Ravens defense, as Lewis provides talent and leadership to one of the best defenses. The Ravens are not the only ones dealing with the injury bug.
After getting hurt against Pittsburgh and sitting out most of the game, rookie wide receiver A.J. Green is doubtful for this game and has not practiced all week.
The Bengals also will have problems on defense as the secondary will be without Leon Hall who is out for the season with a neck injury. Kelly Jennings will be the starting cornerback and he will be a liability for the defense. Seemingly every big play that has been allowed by the Bengals defense has been allowed by Jennings. Anquan Boldin is a very big physical wide receiver that will have the advantage going up against Jennings.
The NFL week 11 betting trends also favor the Baltimore Ravens in this game. The Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in November and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 11. The Ravens are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. In fact since 2006 the Ravens have dominated as a home favorite covering the spread at 59% (22-15 ATS). That number jumps to 60% when the last game was a road game (17-11 ATS).
After a physical game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, expect the Bengals to be banged up and limping into this game. Rookie Quarterback Andy Dalton has looked good in the past, but will struggle against the Ravens.
The Ravens are livid about the loss to Seattle and will be focused for this contest. Look for the Ravens to get the lead early and never look back as they win this game by double digits.
NFL Lock Week 11: Baltimore Ravens (-7)