NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread: Upset of the Week-Dolphins vs. Patriots
Written by Matthew Regaw
Fri, 23 Dec 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
This is the time of year when upsets happen every week as teams are going all out on the field to make the playoffs and divisional play gets underway. This week the New England Patriots will be on upset alert when they go up against the Miami Dolphins.
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Last week the Patriots played against the Broncos in one of the most watched regular season games in a very long time. With that in mind, it should come as a surprise to no one that the Patriots are being heavily backed this week (81%) by the football betting public. While the Patriots are the better team, the sports betting line is very inflated. A closer look at a few situations will reveal that the Dolphins are a very good bet and could easily win this game outright.
Hot Fins: The Dolphins are a very good football team and right now are playing very good football. Matt Moore has settled in at quarterback and Reggie Bush has undergone a rebirth as a key running back in this system. They trampled Buffalo on the road and continue to play hard every week.
Defenseless Pats: The Patriots defense is still not very good. Their secondary is filled with holes and they do not have one player that will be able to cover Brandon Marshall. The Pats placed defensive end Andre Carter on injured reserve for the season and will miss his presence on the front line that contributed with 10 sacks on the season.
NFL Bettng Trends: The Trends also favor the Dolphins in this game. The Dolphins are 21-8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 30 road games, 23-6 ATS in their last 29 road games against a team with a winning home record, and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. The Dolphins seem to get up for big games and actually play better on the road.
In the past, backing the Dolphins may have been a scary proposition, but lately they are playing with raw emotion and are playing to win. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and they have a very good chance of beating the Patriots in week 16.
NFL Week 16 Upset Of the Week: Miami Dolphins +9.5