NFL Week Three Best Bets: The Top Football Picks Against the Spread
Written by Matthew Regaw
Sat, 24 Sep 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
NFL week three is loaded with great games to choose from when betting on football. That is why I release four picks each week as part of the NFL best bets. These best bets do not include my NFL upset pick, and my NFL locks of the week.
Last week the Best Bets struggled, but I am famous for rebounding after a tough week, so with that in mind, here are the Best Bets for week three in the NFL.
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Detroit Lions have become one of the darlings of football betting fanatics of the 2011 season. Matthew Stafford has looked great so far and the Lions have rewarded backers with a 2-0 start straight up and against the spread. The Vikings are 0-2 and with a low spread of 3.5, the easy play is on the Lions right? Not quite. The Vikings are desperate for a win and are live home divisional dogs. Adrian Peterson, who leads the NFC with 218 rushing yards is still a viable threat out of the backfield. The Vikings actually have a better run defense when looking at yards per rush. Kevin Williams returns from his two game suspension and the Vikings will pull off the upset. Detroit is 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 matchups with Minnesota and 1-4 ATS in their last five visits
NFL Best Bet: Vikings +3.5
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
The Tennessee Titans are off one of the biggest upsets of the week, as they beat up the Baltimore Ravens in week two. Now they take on the Denver Broncos, who are dealing with injuries. There is no mistaking that the Titans are the better team, but after the big win, this line is inflated by at least three points. The Broncos still have talent on offense and Kyle Orton is slowly making Eric Decker a star on offense. The Titans are 17-41 ATS in their last 58 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. This game is closer than people think.
NFL Best Bet: Broncos +7
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
The New England Patriots always get a ton of betting action and this week will be no different. While Tom Brady is great, the Pats defense is suspect and could be without Chung on defense. The Bills are undefeated, but still get no love in this game, because they lost 16 straight, but this is a different team. The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC. The Bills could easily pull off the upset this week.
NFL Best Bets Buffalo +9
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers
The rise of Cam Newton has made the Panthers a 3.5 point favorite. To make matters worse the Jaguars will be starting a rookie quarterback in Blaine Gabbert. The Jags offense will be predictable and allow the Panthers defense to stack the box and stop the run. Gabbert is a rookie and can expect a few mistakes. With Newton and the offense moving the ball through the air, they will easily cover this number.
NFL Best Bet: Carolina Panthers -3.5
Those are the NFL Best Bets for week three.