Super Bowl Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers
Written by Greg Waters
Thu, 3 Feb 2011
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
Super Bowl XLV kicks-off Sunday at Dallas Cowboys Stadium where the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers will battle on the biggest stage.
Online sportsbooks opened the line for this game at Packers (-2) but the public bettors have spoken and the common line for Super Bowl betting is currently listed at Green Bay (-2.5) or in some cases, there are some 3s out there.
Between Super Bowl V and Super Bowl XXXV, spreads of -3 points or less had become inconsequential for bettors as just one game ended with a margin of victory at three points or less (Super Bowl XXV, Giants beat Bills 20-19).
Times have changed dramatically in the past decade, with four games ending on a margin of exactly three points. It puts added value on shopping for the right line in this matchup and checking sports betting websites daily for updates.
Super Bowl Gameplan:
The Steelers were 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog and will rely on the league's stingiest defense to try and make Packers QB Aaron Rodgers' offense one-dimensional. Pittsburgh's defense led the league in nearly every rushing department, limiting opponents to just 3.0 yards per carry, but the Steelers were also first in QB sacks (48) and getting pressure on Rodgers to force a mistake is a key to victory.
Two of the few teams that had success against the Steelers (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) this year were the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots. The recipe called for abandoning the run, spreading out the receivers and going after the secondary. Led by Troy Polamalu, the defensive backfield played much better during the second-half of the season but Green Bay brings a highly talented set of weapons and Pittsburgh will be tested.
The Packers can also get after the QB, notching 46 sacks on the season, but other than Michael Vick there may not be another player in the league right now better than Ben Roethlisberger at extending the play.
SUPER BOWL PICK
Neither of these teams allowed more than 15 points per game this year on average and following recent trends, this game sets up to be another close one. Big Ben's ability along with a run-game good for at least 30 carries Sunday and the experienced players Pittsburgh has on both sides of the field, give what we feel is a small edge in this contest to the underdog.
Pick: Take the Steelers
Good luck.
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