Thursday Night Football: Panthers vs. Steelers
Written by Greg Waters
Thu, 23 Dec 2010
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
Last week the Panthers bid farewell to their home field for the 2010 season with a 19-12 win over the Arizona Cardinals (4-10), one of the teams currently in a race with Carolina for top pick at next year's draft.
Carolina (2-12) is one of five NFL teams finishing the season with back-to-back road games and with HC John Fox's bags all but packed, the only real incentive that remains for some players is to try and make a lasting impression with owner Jerry Richardson for next season.
Pittsburgh (10-4) is off a home loss to the New York Jets and sits atop the AFC North, tied for first place with the Baltimore Ravens (10-4). The motivation couldn't be any greater for the Steelers and oddsmakers recognized that with the largest pointspread assigned to any favorite all season.
Online sportsbooks opened this game with betting odds of Pittsburgh (-13) but more than 70-percent public support for the double-digit favorite have hiked the line across a key number.
INJURY IMPACT
DE Aaron Smith (triceps) and S Troy Polamalu (ankle) are significant losses to the Steelers defensive corps.
Carolina has been reduced to backups at several positions as well, notably on the offensive line, and has allowed the second most QB sacks in the league.
When rookie QB Clausen does drop back to pass, look for the Steelers to provide big-time pressure and adequate coverage that accounts for Polamalu's absence.
THE RUN AROUND
Carolina's 12th ranked run game averages 116.8 rushing yards per game (RYPG) and what's more impressive about that is the fact that Carolina is often playing from behind.
In Week 15 the Panthers led Arizona 9-6 at the half, the second time in three weeks Carolina held a lead through 30 minutes (Seattle), but in six other games the Panthers have played since Week 7 they were down all six times at the break by an average score of 11.8 points per game.
NFL BETTING SYSTEMS
We've mentioned the Panthers record at half-time in the past and one thing a 2-6 mark will earn bettors is pointspread value.
- In the final two weeks of the season when we play against teams (Pittsburgh) in the first-half that are coming off an upset loss in a game where they were favored at home, our record the past three seasons is 14-3 ATS.
NFL PICK
The Steelers can write their own playoff ticket with back-to-back wins vs. the Panthers and the Browns. Pittsburgh's gameplan will be designed to produce a win through 60 minutes and backed by our system that is 83-percent successful since 2007, we like the underdog value in the first 30 minutes.
Pick: Take the Panthers in the first-half
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