Week 10 Key NFL Trends From NFLOne.com
Written by The Director
Sat, 8 Nov 2008
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.
If there was ever a series on a yo-yo, it is here in San Diego. Before you jump all over the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, who are 4-1 ATS in the last five games in the series, realize that the one victory by the Kansas City Chiefs came here; not only a victory ATS, but Edwards stole a SU victory and upset here in 2007. The one-two punch of Huard and Johnson putting up 390 offensive yards for the win; of course, this is now the reign of Thigpin and Charles.
DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE
With Turner's departure sinking the Chargers, and uplifting the Falcons, it seems appropriate to travel to Atlanta where the ATLANTA FALCONS are 3-0 ATS at Home in 2008. While the New Orleans Saints are 1-2 ATS on the Road, they are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus the Falcons ATS in their last four matchups. In fact, in the last two in the series here in Atlanta, the Saints have won by an average of 19 points. Hard to believe that it was Leftwich and Harrington guiding the Falcons against the Saints here in 2007.
FIRST LOOK
If New Yorkers were not celebrating in Times Square after Obama's victory, they will get their chance on Sunday as the streaking New York Giants, 17-5 ATS on the Road, and 6-1 ATS as an Underdog of 3 or less points over the last three years, battle the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, 0-3 ATS as Home Favorites of 3 or less points over the last three years, who were held to only an average of 6.5 points per game in their 2007 season matchups. The Giants 3-0 reign ATS started back in the 2006 playoffs in Philadelphia. With the offense powering 168 rushing yards per game in its last four games, it is the defense, and the 2.8 takeaways that has the Giants on the winning track. With McNabb projected to have over 250 passing yards, Manning will need his #2 ranked rushing attack, averaging 162.6 rushing yards per game to save the day.
ADVANTAGE GIANTS
Like the Green Bay/Minnesota series, we are making a return trip to the San Francisco/Arizona series. As I noted in Week 1 - one thing is for sure, in this series, through both Green, and now Whisenhunt, the Away team, who is is King. With James and Hightower driving the engine in Week 1, the Cardinals raised the bar to 8-0 ATS for the Away team in their last 8 matchups in this series. The Niners will try to avoid O'Sullivan's bumbles, and the 4 fumbles that sank them in Week 1, and once again out shoot the Cardinals, who seem to come alive in this stadium averaging 32 points per game on over 375 total yards of offense in going 1-1 SU.
ADVANTAGE CARDINALS
It also worth noting that the 49ers are a perfect 9-0 Over the Total after the bye week. This is compounded by the fact that in the last two wins ATS for the Niners here in Arizona these teams went Over the Total to the tune of 68 and 61 points.
OVER
KING TRENDS
This is a Green Bay Packers team that is one of the few that can run with the top ranked Tennessee Titans. Outscoring their opponents by an average of 6 points with the #1 ranked pass defense in the last four games, allowing only 164 yards per game, the Packers, 14-5 ATS on the Road over the last three years, including 4-1 ATS as Underdogs of 3 or less points, face off with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS, who are projected by to have the leading rushing attack on Sunday with 158 rushing yards. That said, the trouble for the Vikings, 5-11 ATS in games with +3 or -3 spreads, and 3-5 ATS in weeks 10-13 over the last three years, is the projected 238 passing yards expected for Green Bay's Rodgers; although the Vikings have an average of 2.3 takeaways per game in their last four games, it is the 2.3 turnovers that will ultimately trouble them again on Sunday. The fact remains that the Packers are 4-1 ATS in this series with McCarthy at the helm. Underdogs by as many as 5.5 points, and favored by as many as 5.5 points, the Packers, 6-0 ATS in Dome games over the last three years, have been steady in their last two in Minnesota winning by an average margin of 6.5 points per game.
ADVANTAGE PACKERS
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