Week 11 Key NFL Trends From NFLOne.com
Written by The Director
Fri, 14 Nov 2008
Category sportsbook
Feedback Rating - no votes
AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look ‘Tasty’ ATS in many publications as a ‘Bullet’ trend only to ‘trap’ upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real ‘ADVANTAGE’ against the ‘Trend’.
Who would have thought that the word showdown would be used with this Thursday’s battle between the NY Jets and NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS? Who would have thought that with the injury to Tom Brady, and the arrival of Favre in New York that the teams would arrive as carbon copies of one another? The Jets arrive averaging 4.6 rushing yards per attempt while the Patriots are pumping out 4.1 rushing yards per attempt. The real question in this one is whether Favre, 89.8 rating, and the Jets can write another page in the history books. Having faced off both in the regular season and playoffs, the NY Jets arrive 2-0 ATS in their last two in the series here in New England. Interestingly, the Pats have not been favored by as little as 3.5 points since 2002 when they ironically were upset by the Jets by 13 points. With the only SU loss since 2002 coming here in 2005, the Pats have actually outscored by the Jets by nearly 10 points per game over the last four years.
DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE
With Favre looking young again atop the AFC East, we return to 2004, the last time the ATLANTA FALCONS met and beat the Denver Broncos, and the NY GIANTS lost ATS to the Baltimore Ravens.
Like the injury to Brady, if there was ever an unfortunate injury for a team it was that of the Bears’ Kyle Orton, who is 2-0 SU with a passer rating of 103.2 in his battles with the GREEN BAY PACKERS. Lovie Smith and the Bears are on a 2-0 run ATS versus the Packers; the Bears going 3-1-1 ATS over the last three years. It should be kept in mind that the Packers, now led by Rodgers, who has a 104 passer rating in his games versus the NFC North, loss to the Bears by 28 points here last year came in the last week in the season.
FIRST LOOK
With one stroke of the clock, two teams faced off with the AFC North in Week 10. The INDIANAPOLIS COLTS were up to the challenge with a victory, and the Houston Texans were not. Now the two face one another. Projecting to have the most points on Sunday, the Colts arrive Home where they are not only 2-0 ATS in their last two games with the Texans, but have outscored the Texans by over 20 points per game in those victories. Even more daunting for the Houston Texans defense that is ranked 19th in allowing 329.3 yards per game is Manning powering a 118.4 passer rating in his 13 games in the series.
ADVANTAGE COLTS
With the 49ERS working to overcome a heartbreaking loss, and the Rams trying to clean off the tire tracks left by their loss to the Jets, the two teams meet in San Francisco. After going 0-3 ATS in the series since his arrival in St. Louis, Linehan finally produced a victory ATS here last November on only 207 offensive yards. Can Haslett outwit and outplay Singletary?
ADVANTAGE 49ERS
So you dare follow the Arizona Cardinals to Seattle. Having followed the trends on Monday Night Football, the Cardinals arrive in Seattle where the Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four games in this series. Is there a turning of the tide at work given that the Cardinals were 0-2 SU and ATS in 2004 losing by nearly 20 points per game. While we to have wait and see, Warner has to be salivating at the Seahawks league’s worst rated passing defense that allowed him 305 passing yards in the previous loss here.
ADVANTAGE SEAHAWKS
KEY TRENDS
If there was ever a coach, team, and nation ready to take advantage of the struggling Dallas Cowboys team, it is the WASHINGTON REDSKINS. With their win ATS in Week 4, the Redskins, who are projected to power nearly 350 yards of offense on Sunday, are now 4-0 ATS in their last four in the series. Having not lost to the Cowboys SU since 2004, the Skins have outscored the Boys by over 15 points per game in their last three victories here in Washington; although Campbell had lit up the Cowboys in Dallas for 348 passing yards in Dallas, it was quarterback Todd Collins standing tall as the local hero here last year. Dallas fans will hope for the return of Romo, 103.5 rating, will be welcome back after suffering through Brad Johnson’s 5.47 yards per attempt for a whopping quarterback rating of 50.5.
ADVANTAGE REDSKINS
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